Peter is a Junior Research Associate at the INET Center for Imperfect Knowledge Economics at the University of Copenhagen and a Ph.D. candidate in economics at the University of New Hampshire, where he also received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees.
His most recent work examines why researchers typically find that exchange rates are not related to macroeconomic fundamentals when based on out-of-sample prediction. It shows that the poor performance commonly found in the literature can be traced mainly to ignoring temporal instability. This work highlights the need for economists to cope with non-routine change in conducting macroeconomic analysis.
Peter Sullivan
By this expert
Rationality and the Meese and Rogoff Exchange-Rate-Disconnect Puzzle: Learning vs. Contingent Knowledge
There is much anecdotal evidence in the popular media, backed up by survey research, that participants in currency markets pay close attention to fundamental economic variables in forming their forecasts of future exchange rates.